Competition

Compared with air transport, the Shinkansen has several advantages, including scheduling frequency and flexibility, punctual operation, comfortable seats, and convenient city-centre terminals.

Shinkansen fares are generally competitive with domestic air fares. From a speed and convenience perspective, the Shinkansen’s market share has surpassed that of air travel for journeys of less than 750 km, while air and rail remain highly competitive with each other in the 800–900 km range and air has a higher market share for journeys of more than 1,000 km.[68]

  • Tokyo – Nagoya (342 km), Tokyo – Sendai (325 km), Tokyo – Hanamaki (Morioka) (496 km), Tokyo – Niigata (300 km): There were air services between these cities, but they were withdrawn after Shinkansen services started. Shinkansen runs between these cities in about two hours or less.
  • Tokyo – Osaka (515 km): Shinkansen is dominant because of fast (2 hours 22 minutes) and frequent service (up to every 10 minutes by Nozomi); however, air travel has a certain share (~20–30%).
  • Tokyo – Okayama (676 km), Tokyo – Hiroshima (821 km): Shinkansen is reported to have increased its market share from ~40% to ~60% over the last decade.[69] The Shinkansen takes about three to four hours and there are Nozomi trains every 30 minutes, but airlines may provide cheaper fares, attracting price-conscious passengers.
  • Tokyo – Fukuoka (1,069 km): The Shinkansen takes about five hours on the fastest Nozomi, and discount carriers have made air travel far cheaper, so most people choose air. Additionally, unlike many cities, there is very little convenience advantage for the location of the Shinkansen stations of the two cities as Fukuoka Airport is located near the central Tenjin district, and Fukuoka City Subway Line 1 connects the Airport and Tenjin via Hakata Station and Haneda Airport is similarly conveniently located.
  • Osaka – Fukuoka (554 km): One of the most competitive sections. The Shinkansen takes about two and a half hours by Nozomi or Mizuho, and the JR West Hikari Rail Star or JR West/JR Kyushu Sakura trains operate twice an hour, taking about 2 hours and 40 minutes between the two cities. Again the location of the airports involved helps with the popularity of air travel.
  • Tokyo – Aomori (675 km): The fastest Shinkansen service between these cities is 3 hours. JAL is reported to have reduced the size of planes servicing this route since the Shinkansen extension opened in 2010.[69]
  • Tokyo – Hokuriku (345 km): The fastest Shinkansen service between these cities is 2½ hours. ANA is reported to have reduced the number of services from Tokyo to Kanazawa and Toyama from 6 to 4 per day since the Shinkansen extension opened in 2015. The share of passengers travelling this route by air is reported to have dropped from 40% to 10% in the same period.[46]

(from here)

The people came first

None of the reformers I have described disputed the importance of research or any particular scientific findings. These neopopulists all admired modern medicine; they merely wanted it to be accessible to the lowliest members of society. Which is to say that these were battles of privilege versus equality.

‘The most important issue at stake in the battle between the Saskatchewan government and the doctors of that province is not medicare but democracy,’ declared the Toronto Globe and Mail a few weeks into the strike. ‘The professional, in whatever line, must always be subject, in the final analysis, to the laity, or democracy cannot function.’

This was exactly what was wrong with democracy, others screamed: it gave the unlettered ‘laity’ power over their betters. George Sokolsky, an American syndicated columnist, thundered his support for the striking doctors of Saskatchewan on the grounds that they were ‘fighting a battle for the professional men in this era of mobocracy’. Sokolsky, a ferocious anticommunist, saw the doctors struggling to keep their heads up as the rest of the world drowned beneath the waves of equality. ‘It used to be that human beings respected each other for their worth, but today the motto seems to be “I’m as good as you are”.’ This was a false and pernicious doctrine, the columnist raged. Everyone in a country like ours can speak their mind, but as the world grows more complicated, ‘only the expert can have an opinion on an increasing number of subjects.’

Internet of beefs

A beef-only thinker is someone you cannot simply talk to. Anything that is not an expression of pure, unqualified support for whatever they are doing or saying is received as a mark of disrespect, and a provocation to conflict. From there, you can only crash into honor-based conflict mode, or back away and disengage.

Nothing new to see, move along

But even if you don’t care what’s up with strings and multiverses, you should worry about what is happening here. The foundations of physics are the canary in the coal mine. It’s an old discipline and the first to run into this problem. But the same problem will sooner or later surface in other disciplines if experiments become increasingly expensive and recruit large fractions of the scientific community.

Indeed, we see this beginning to happen in medicine and in ecology, too.

Small-scale drug trials have pretty much run their course. These are good only to find in-your-face correlations that are universal across most people. Medicine, therefore, will increasingly have to rely on data collected from large groups over long periods of time to find increasingly personalized diagnoses and prescriptions. The studies which are necessary for this are extremely costly. They must be chosen carefully for not many of them can be made. The study of ecosystems faces a similar challenge, where small, isolated investigations are about to reach their limits.

How physicists handle their crisis will give an example to other disciplines. So watch this space.

https://iai.tv/articles/why-physics-has-made-no-progress-in-50-years-auid-1292

Time, money, all gone

Engineering problems will first manifest themselves in a schedule slip someplace. Generally, as I have learned since then, if you have a technical problem someplace or some kind of a problem, it will manifest itself first as a schedule slip. Then, it will eventually become a cost problem. If you wait to see the cost problem, something has already happened over which you have long since lost control. I always believed in the old adage, ‘Time is money’; but if you could control the schedule, you could, in fact, control the cost ultimately in what was going on.
– LtGen Hans “Whitey” Driessnack, USAF

(from here)